Stage 3 reward probability - is it broken?
I haven't seen this anywhere else so I figured I would ask here.
I assumed I was just victim of bad RNG for the first couple weeks, but now that we are approaching the 1 month point and I've done at least 1 run every single day with multiple toons trying multiple tactics and STILL have yet to get an obelisk (and only 3 banners) I am starting to wonder if something is broken (or maybe just me?). I don't have an exact count on how many satchels I've received since the event started but it's well over 250 at this point and 95% of the drops I've gotten have been rubble or items (I feel like it's 60/40 rubble there). I have 15 cubes and 3 banners...and zero obelisk. Even if the drop rate is 1% for the obelisks I should have at least gotten 1 at this point.
@Community Manager - Can you help us with the the intended drop rate on the satchel contents (ie rubble/riftborne items/cubes/banners/obelisks)?
The math ain't quite mathing here. There are SIX possible hues to get with a MAX chance of 5 rounds (stage 3) in a 24 hour period but more realistically it's 4 rounds per shard (and that's ATL). You will need to cross shard to do anything more than 4 rounds in a day (and time things perfectly). So if I were to hit every single stage 3 on ATL for a month straight that would be 120 satchels (4 drops per day times 30 days)... I've done over twice that (multiple accounts) and STILL haven't received a single obelisk. I get it if they are supposed to be less common but at this rate the average single player with 1 or 2 accounts would have to play 24/7 hitting stage 3 on multiple shards perfectly for the entire event to receive maybe 1 out of 6 hues.... that doesn't make sense.
I've tried using a luck suit, using different toon types, aiming for max damage done vs most damage taken/healed, doing the rounds consistently with the same toon (ie my bard)....and nothing seems like it goes towards what goes in the satchel. I've done tons of damage (and taken damage) to only get a bag of rubble and then I've been dead while getting a satchel and get a cube... doesn't seem like what you actually do during the fight impacts what you get... it's just random with some sort of probability added on top to give rubble/items most of the time. Honestly it's a bit deflating to have done so many rounds and gotten so many satchels without getting more banners/obelisks... if anything I think THAT deserves some sort of hotfix.
Can anyone confirm/debunk my findings?
I assumed I was just victim of bad RNG for the first couple weeks, but now that we are approaching the 1 month point and I've done at least 1 run every single day with multiple toons trying multiple tactics and STILL have yet to get an obelisk (and only 3 banners) I am starting to wonder if something is broken (or maybe just me?). I don't have an exact count on how many satchels I've received since the event started but it's well over 250 at this point and 95% of the drops I've gotten have been rubble or items (I feel like it's 60/40 rubble there). I have 15 cubes and 3 banners...and zero obelisk. Even if the drop rate is 1% for the obelisks I should have at least gotten 1 at this point.
@Community Manager - Can you help us with the the intended drop rate on the satchel contents (ie rubble/riftborne items/cubes/banners/obelisks)?
The math ain't quite mathing here. There are SIX possible hues to get with a MAX chance of 5 rounds (stage 3) in a 24 hour period but more realistically it's 4 rounds per shard (and that's ATL). You will need to cross shard to do anything more than 4 rounds in a day (and time things perfectly). So if I were to hit every single stage 3 on ATL for a month straight that would be 120 satchels (4 drops per day times 30 days)... I've done over twice that (multiple accounts) and STILL haven't received a single obelisk. I get it if they are supposed to be less common but at this rate the average single player with 1 or 2 accounts would have to play 24/7 hitting stage 3 on multiple shards perfectly for the entire event to receive maybe 1 out of 6 hues.... that doesn't make sense.
I've tried using a luck suit, using different toon types, aiming for max damage done vs most damage taken/healed, doing the rounds consistently with the same toon (ie my bard)....and nothing seems like it goes towards what goes in the satchel. I've done tons of damage (and taken damage) to only get a bag of rubble and then I've been dead while getting a satchel and get a cube... doesn't seem like what you actually do during the fight impacts what you get... it's just random with some sort of probability added on top to give rubble/items most of the time. Honestly it's a bit deflating to have done so many rounds and gotten so many satchels without getting more banners/obelisks... if anything I think THAT deserves some sort of hotfix.
Can anyone confirm/debunk my findings?
Comments
- 1x Obelisk
- 2x banners ("common" versions apparently)
- 2x void cubes
- 1x scorched earth
And it's been quite a while since I got anything other than ingredients. My RNG is junk, lol.- 0x Obelisk
- 4x banners
- 16x void cubes
- 8x scorched earth
My void cubes and scorched earth are higher because I've gotten 2 or 3 cubes off of the mobs while opening the gates as well as probably 4-5 scorched rubble.My RNG luck is really bad. I'd happily take the scorched earth or banners, as my son is collecting the scorched earth and I could sell the banners for a decent amount.
I'm going to keep doing them because they are fun and LS is well-organized and it's a fun group of people, plus I want to pick up a few reward items that might be worth something down the road.
This increases the value of the reward and encourages participation.
If everyone gets one for the first month, less players will join to breach the wall in the second month.
Since its RNG, imagine if you are unlucky and the last of the lot to get in the first month. In the end, you are the only one left trying to breach the wall and fight the boss.
ESRB warning: Some Blood. LOTS of Alcohol. Some Violence. LOTS of Bugs
Really was just trying to clarify, but my opinion is that it's the latter situation where it's weighted since everyone here has less Obelisks than all other drops and banners seem like the second least (except for one person).
I wonder if phase 1 to 3 will stall when player interest or the black rocks run out. Then there will be no more access to the dungeon for latecomers. Bad for small shard.
ESRB warning: Some Blood. LOTS of Alcohol. Some Violence. LOTS of Bugs
I'm still doing stage 3 at least once or twice a day (sometimes 3) and finding zero luck at all with RNG for the Obelisk. I did add one banner in the last few days and several void cubes, but mostly getting rubble followed by a bag of drops.
- 0x Obelisk
- 5x banners
- 20x void cubes
- 10x scorched earth
Probably just going to chalk this up to the usual "RNG doesn't like me" and move along.The most I’m getting and have been getting since last month, with 1-3 runs a day, is void cubes, I don’t know if that makes you feel better or not. I’d love for some scorched earth or a banner or two. I’m happy to get extra artifacts in the satchels.
My son is going to start doing one or two a day for a few weeks, and wants to do a spreadsheet of everything he gets in phase 3. I will laugh and cry if he racks up a few obelisks and banners.
My qualm with the Obelisk & Banners is that they only are available 4 times a day (max) on a shard and that's if people even work it... it could be only once or twice and even if you shard hop, you basically need to get lucky that you are checking when it's being done... you need a lot of time/effort/chance to even get the satchels. So when I have easily 400+ satchels (honestly lost count might be 500) without a single Obelisk and only 5 banners that doesn't seem right. I hear the Devs/CM on the "them's the breaks on RNG" but at the same time you cannot tell me that every reward is equally granted because that drop disbursement would look more like the champ spawn from the previous event (the 2 meatballs) where after 100 or 200 spawns you would eventually have at least 1 of each item. /rant
LS was absolutely packed this evening, but I didn't hear of anybody getting obelisks or banners.
0 Obelisks
3 Banners
17 Void cubes
2 obelisk
1 banner
1 cube
1 scorched rubble
Its just like the Krampus rewards. Some are more rare.
From 5 on Friday:
Answer Parallax: The Void Obelisk is intended to be the rarest reward from the Rifted Crown Champion encounter, so you won’t see it drop very often. When one does drop, the hue is chosen from a weighted list, ranging from common to very rare. The void-colored hue (2071), in particular, is the rarest of them all.
I did get scorched rubble while doing the catapult, which is a first for me.
ESRB warning: Some Blood. LOTS of Alcohol. Some Violence. LOTS of Bugs
For me, the ATL siege time works for the most part after server up (7am-ish) because that's typically the time I play before needing to do "grown up stuff", but depending on your time zone/schedule/how many others are on that might be tough; especially on shards that might not be on a regular cadence. While I do like this event, for the next event I do hope they go back to a "summon style" mechanic (ie remove the 4 hours dungeon delay) for the satchels like with Krampus or MoE so that everyone is able to partake in at least 1 "satchel event" whenever they are able to log in versus needing to be on at a certain time to partake (ie if you log in during the first hour of the dungeon you need to wait another 4 hours).