Stage 3 reward probability - is it broken?

I haven't seen this anywhere else so I figured I would ask here.

I assumed I was just victim of bad RNG for the first couple weeks, but now that we are approaching the 1 month point and I've done at least 1 run every single day with multiple toons trying multiple tactics and STILL have yet to get an obelisk (and only 3 banners) I am starting to wonder if something is broken (or maybe just me?). I don't have an exact count on how many satchels I've received since the event started but it's well over 250 at this point and 95% of the drops I've gotten have been rubble or items (I feel like it's 60/40 rubble there). I have 15 cubes and 3 banners...and zero obelisk. Even if the drop rate is 1% for the obelisks I should have at least gotten 1 at this point.

@Community Manager - Can you help us with the the intended drop rate on the satchel contents (ie rubble/riftborne items/cubes/banners/obelisks)? 

The math ain't quite mathing here. There are SIX possible hues to get with a MAX chance of 5 rounds (stage 3) in a 24 hour period but more realistically it's 4 rounds per shard (and that's ATL). You will need to cross shard to do anything more than 4 rounds in a day (and time things perfectly). So if I were to hit every single stage 3 on ATL for a month straight that would be 120 satchels (4 drops per day times 30 days)... I've done over twice that (multiple accounts) and STILL haven't received a single obelisk. I get it if they are supposed to be less common but at this rate the average single player with 1 or 2 accounts would have to play 24/7 hitting stage 3 on multiple shards perfectly for the entire event to receive maybe 1 out of 6 hues.... that doesn't make sense. 

I've tried using a luck suit, using different toon types, aiming for max damage done vs most damage taken/healed, doing the rounds consistently with the same toon (ie my bard)....and nothing seems like it goes towards what goes in the satchel. I've done tons of damage (and taken damage) to only get a bag of rubble and then I've been dead while getting a satchel and get a cube... doesn't seem like what you actually do during the fight impacts what you get... it's just random with some sort of probability added on top to give rubble/items most of the time. Honestly it's a bit deflating to have done so many rounds and gotten so many satchels without getting more banners/obelisks... if anything I think THAT deserves some sort of hotfix.

Can anyone confirm/debunk my findings? 

Comments

  • Community ManagerCommunity Manager Posts: 632Dev
    I am unable to assist with the drop rate. Unfortunately, it is 100% RNG. Sometimes you're lucky, other times you're not. 
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  • keven2002keven2002 Posts: 2,504
    I am unable to assist with the drop rate. Unfortunately, it is 100% RNG. Sometimes you're lucky, other times you're not. 
    I'm reading this as all items have the same chance to drop; ie there are 5 possible satchels so they all have a 20% chance of dropping?
  • LokeaLokea Posts: 227
    I've had well over 60 runs (two a day, sometimes 3, it works out with my time zone and schedule).
    • 1x Obelisk
    • 2x banners ("common" versions apparently)
    • 2x void cubes
    • 1x scorched earth
    And it's been quite a while since I got anything other than ingredients. My RNG is junk, lol.
  • keven2002keven2002 Posts: 2,504
    Lokea said:
    I've had well over 60 runs (two a day, sometimes 3, it works out with my time zone and schedule).
    • 1x Obelisk
    • 2x banners ("common" versions apparently)
    • 2x void cubes
    • 1x scorched earth
    And it's been quite a while since I got anything other than ingredients. My RNG is junk, lol.
    Thanks for sharing... that's interesting because you have a fraction of the runs I do, yet you have more obelisks and almost as many banners.
  • GrimbeardGrimbeard Posts: 3,074
    To clarify what can I find in hidden chest that require stealing 
  • firecfirec Posts: 46
    Grimbeard said:
    To clarify what can I find in hidden chest that require stealing 
    I've been doing chests between every round I could. So far the only thing I've found anyone is stealing is my time.
  • keven2002keven2002 Posts: 2,504
    Grimbeard said:
    To clarify what can I find in hidden chest that require stealing 
    Wrong thread for this, but the only stealable from the chests is the ethereal prism.
  • NuSairNuSair Posts: 34
    My wife and I have been doing 2-3 a day every day since the event started. 
    • 0x Obelisk
    • 9x banners 
    • 7x void cubes
    • 0x scorched earth
  • TheoTheo Posts: 264

    • 0x Obelisk
    • 2x banners 
    • 11x void cubes
    • 6x scorched earth

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