If Luck Actually Works

Grimbeard · January 2

Fire fish are more common than cutthroat trout so is it fishing or the rng that's broken

popps · January 2

Pawain said:

dara said:

It's not bragging , letting other know just keep at it. And I also got a red one from a grand map with no luck. It's not off topic.

That's how RNG works. I'll bet there is a player who casually logged in, did 5 hidden chests or Matriarch and got an egg. There is probably a player who got one on the first try.

I have opened a ton of gift tokens in UO. I have like 3 rare hue items and 5 rare boxes. 1 angel box in all my years.

We need numbers. The only concrete number I have is I got 85 skirts. 3 mature eggs.

They said the size of the nest and luck will give you the best chance for a mature egg. But you always have a chance.

That is the only metric I can provide. I'm doing pet building and deco now.

I think that what players are complaining about, is the total unreliability of the Luck bonus...

"If" Luck really worked, among the players getting a Mature egg, players using worn Luck and the Statue and Clock Luck bonuses should get, 9 out of 10 times, a Mature egg with the 1 out of 10 times "no Luck" player still getting an occasional Mature egg but this, being the exception because of the RNG.

That is, most Mature eggs gotten out there should be to players using maxed out Luck...

Instead, to many players it looks like that using worn Luck, as well as the Luck Statue and Luck Clock does nothing because players without any luck or with little Luck still get Mature eggs and in a capacity that is not much less, apparently, as compared to players using Luck, even maxed out Luck.

However one looks at it, to many players it really, but really looks like that Luck helps nothing...

Yet, in order to wear a maxed out Luck suit one has to give up many other properties important for fighting and survival... bottom line is, that from the way it looks like, having a Luck suit makes hardly any significant difference.

So, many players ask themselves, why should they give up other important properties useful for fighting and survival in exchange for Luck when Luck helps so little if not nothing at all ?

Pawain · January 3

@popps you want the rare prize 1 of 10?

No one would be doing it after a few days, in my case.

You want everything on a clicky.

They have to make the content engaging. Doing something 10 times and getting the rare drop is not engaging.

Grimbeard · January 3

popps said:

Pawain said:

dara said:

It's not bragging , letting other know just keep at it. And I also got a red one from a grand map with no luck. It's not off topic.

That's how RNG works. I'll bet there is a player who casually logged in, did 5 hidden chests or Matriarch and got an egg. There is probably a player who got one on the first try.

I have opened a ton of gift tokens in UO. I have like 3 rare hue items and 5 rare boxes. 1 angel box in all my years.

We need numbers. The only concrete number I have is I got 85 skirts. 3 mature eggs.

They said the size of the nest and luck will give you the best chance for a mature egg. But you always have a chance.

That is the only metric I can provide. I'm doing pet building and deco now.

I think that what players are complaining about, is the total unreliability of the Luck bonus...

"If" Luck really worked, among the players getting a Mature egg, players using worn Luck and the Statue and Clock Luck bonuses should get, 9 out of 10 times, a Mature egg with the 1 out of 10 times "no Luck" player still getting an occasional Mature egg but this, being the exception because of the RNG.

That is, most Mature eggs gotten out there should be to players using maxed out Luck...

Instead, to many players it looks like that using worn Luck, as well as the Luck Statue and Luck Clock does nothing because players without any luck or with little Luck still get Mature eggs and in a capacity that is not much less, apparently, as compared to players using Luck, even maxed out Luck.

However one looks at it, to many players it really, but really looks like that Luck helps nothing...

Yet, in order to wear a maxed out Luck suit one has to give up many other properties important for fighting and survival... bottom line is, that from the way it looks like, having a Luck suit makes hardly any significant difference.

So, many players ask themselves, why should they give up other important properties useful for fighting and survival in exchange for Luck when Luck helps so little if not nothing at all ?

My fisherman wears a high luck suit and can do all content you are making excuses

popps · January 3

Pawain said:

@ popps you want the rare prize 1 of 10?

No one would be doing it after a few days, in my case.

You want everything on a clicky.

They have to make the content engaging. Doing something 10 times and getting the rare drop is not engaging.

I may have expressed myself wrongly... I did not mean 1 out of 10 "total" tries... I meant, of the 10 Mature eggs that spawn (say out of 100 or 500, or 1,000 total tries ?), 9 should be going, to my opinion, to those players having worn Luck and using the Luck Statue and Luck Clock and 1 Mature egg going to those not using Luck or using very little...

Otherwise, I do not see why one would want to sacrifice other important properties while trying to maximize Luck.

Victim_Of_Siege · January 3

popps said:

Pawain said:

@ popps you want the rare prize 1 of 10?

No one would be doing it after a few days, in my case.

You want everything on a clicky.

They have to make the content engaging. Doing something 10 times and getting the rare drop is not engaging.

I may have expressed myself wrongly... I did not mean 1 out of 10 "total" tries... I meant, of the 10 Mature eggs that spawn (say out of 100 or 500, or 1,000 total tries ?), 9 should be going, to my opinion, to those players having worn Luck and using the Luck Statue and Luck Clock and 1 Mature egg going to those not using Luck or using very little...

Otherwise, I do not see why one would want to sacrifice other important properties while trying to maximize Luck.

Life, and games are about the pursuit, not the guaranteed reward. The rewards are just the icing on the donut. You aren’t entitled to anything in a game or in life, and this one is no different. You play, you enjoy the experience, and you get what you get.

I’ve played countless events without getting the drop I wanted, and I didn’t melt down over it. I traded for it or bought it later. Nothing wrong with that. I make plenty of gold playing the way I enjoy, and I have fun doing it.

The issue here isn’t the game, it’s the expectations you’re placing on it. You’re treating it like a business investment with expected returns, when it’s supposed to be a break from the grind, not an extension of it. You don’t need top‑tier gear or BIS everything to enjoy the content. I run around in stuff I crafted or looted and still play all the content just fine.

If you can’t enjoy the game without deluxe items dropping like candy, then maybe this isn’t the game for you. Play something that actually makes you happy instead of forcing this one to meet your unrealistic expectations.

Venom · January 3

@popps

That's not how an increase to one's odds works. Since none of us know what the chance rates are for a mature egg with a dragon's nest, let's use some hypothetical #s for the sake of argument:

1) with zero luck, you have a 1% chance at an egg with a massive nest.
2) with "max" luck, you get a 2% chance in the same scenario.

That's a massive increase in chance -- a 100% increase However, it's a 2% chance with every massive nest -- NOT a guarantee that you'll get 2 mature eggs every one hundred massive nests. It's the whole gambler's fallacy.

Now this may be my misunderstanding of what was previously discussed of luck, but if I recall luck is itself its own RNG. By that I mean the game does an RNG roll to see if your luck "wins" and will boost your RNG roll for, in this case, a mature egg. So assuming "max" luck guarantees a 100% increase to 2%, we're still talking a situation you could open 500 massive maps and get 0 mature eggs because every single time you're only getting a 2% chance. While in that 0 reward scenario, luck still "worked" in increasing your RNG chance.

We don't know if 5,000 + luck is a 100% chance to increase your chance of a mature egg reward (or at least I haven't seen that confirmed). Since the Devs added an additional, large temporary way to boost your luck, I'm guessing anything short of 5,000+ luck is not a 100% chance of a boost from luck. That's simply a guess.

It seems that what you're sort of wanting is a doom-style guaranteed reward system. While any such system has pros and cons, it does eliminate the true randomness of that specific reward. With enough data, one would be able to guarantee a mature egg in X amount of maps (let's say 150 massive), effectively reducing maps to a point system that you may get lucky and get an egg early.

I've personally gotten two mature eggs: one from a massive and one from a grand. I've done probably 300 matriarchs and gotten none from that method. I don't do the hidden chests. I wear a lick suit on a tamer. Does it help? I don't really know -- but running around Catskills, it seems there are plenty of people on these new dragon mounts now.

Even at this rarity level, which we don't know the drop rate, I see far more people with this reward than are equipped with cameos from Roof. Over time, since the Devs have confirmed the mature eggs are staying, that supply is just going to go up and up.

In my opinion, the Devs are in a hard spot between transparency and the sort of allure of mystery. If they reveal the mathematical parameters that power this system, it's a sort of Wizard of Oz situation. By confirming that luck works in certain situations (nests, for example) and not with the matriachs, they already revealed useful information.

Pawain · January 3

Yup, when posters say they think the mature egg rate is too low, I noticed weeks ago that there were a lot of colorful Juvenile Umbrascale s running around.

My eyes say they are not so rare.

The luck issue should not be on nests. You can take a mage with whatever luck you want. Find the nest. Walk away. Gate your mob killer to the spot. Toss out 2 EVs. Open the nest. Invis. Let your killer do what they do.

popps · January 3

Victim_Of_Siege said:

popps said:

Pawain said:

@ popps you want the rare prize 1 of 10?

No one would be doing it after a few days, in my case.

You want everything on a clicky.

They have to make the content engaging. Doing something 10 times and getting the rare drop is not engaging.

I may have expressed myself wrongly... I did not mean 1 out of 10 "total" tries... I meant, of the 10 Mature eggs that spawn (say out of 100 or 500, or 1,000 total tries ?), 9 should be going, to my opinion, to those players having worn Luck and using the Luck Statue and Luck Clock and 1 Mature egg going to those not using Luck or using very little...

Otherwise, I do not see why one would want to sacrifice other important properties while trying to maximize Luck.

Life, and games are about the pursuit, not the guaranteed reward. The rewards are just the icing on the donut. You aren’t entitled to anything in a game or in life, and this one is no different. You play, you enjoy the experience, and you get what you get.
I’ve played countless events without getting the drop I wanted, and I didn’t melt down over it. I traded for it or bought it later. Nothing wrong with that. I make plenty of gold playing the way I enjoy, and I have fun doing it.
The issue here isn’t the game, it’s the expectations you’re placing on it. You’re treating it like a business investment with expected returns, when it’s supposed to be a break from the grind, not an extension of it. You don’t need top‑tier gear or BIS everything to enjoy the content. I run around in stuff I crafted or looted and still play all the content just fine.
If you can’t enjoy the game without deluxe items dropping like candy, then maybe this isn’t the game for you. Play something that actually makes you happy instead of forcing this one to meet your unrealistic expectations.

This is software coding... isn't it ?

For example (just making numbers up for the sake of he discussion), without wearing any Luck odds would be 1 in 1,000... wearing Luck from 1 to 500 odds would become 1 in 900, with Luck from 501 to 1,000 odds become 1 in 800, with Luck from 1,001 to 2,000 odds become 1 in 600, with Luck from 2,001 to 3,000 odds become 1 in 500, with Luck from 3,001 to 4,000 odds become 1 in 400, with Luck from 4,001 to 5,000 odds become 1 in 200, with Luck from 5,001 to Luck CAP odds become 1 in 100.

That is, no Luck would give the player a 1 in 1,000 odds while being at 5,001-->Luck CAP would give the player a 1 in 100 odds (10 times higher).

Not a certainty at Luck CAP yet, 10 times higher as with no Luck which "should" inevitably result in players using Luck to have higher chances at rarer drops.

From players' experience in the game, this is not what is going on, it looks to me, way too many players with little to no Luck keep getting rare drops as compared to players using Luck, even maxed out Luck which, at least to me, shows that something might be wrong with the way that Luck works and, should that be the case, it makes sacrificing important properties in order to wear a Luck suit, not really worth the hassle, IMHO...

popps · January 3

Venom said:

@ popps

That's not how an increase to one's odds works. Since none of us know what the chance rates are for a mature egg with a dragon's nest, let's use some hypothetical #s for the sake of argument:

1) with zero luck, you have a 1% chance at an egg with a massive nest.
2) with "max" luck, you get a 2% chance in the same scenario.

That's a massive increase in chance -- a 100% increase However, it's a 2% chance with every massive nest -- NOT a guarantee that you'll get 2 mature eggs every one hundred massive nests. It's the whole gambler's fallacy.

Now this may be my misunderstanding of what was previously discussed of luck, but if I recall luck is itself its own RNG. By that I mean the game does an RNG roll to see if your luck "wins" and will boost your RNG roll for, in this case, a mature egg. So assuming "max" luck guarantees a 100% increase to 2%, we're still talking a situation you could open 500 massive maps and get 0 mature eggs because every single time you're only getting a 2% chance. While in that 0 reward scenario, luck still "worked" in increasing your RNG chance.

We don't know if 5,000 + luck is a 100% chance to increase your chance of a mature egg reward (or at least I haven't seen that confirmed). Since the Devs added an additional, large temporary way to boost your luck, I'm guessing anything short of 5,000+ luck is not a 100% chance of a boost from luck. That's simply a guess.

It seems that what you're sort of wanting is a doom-style guaranteed reward system. While any such system has pros and cons, it does eliminate the true randomness of that specific reward. With enough data, one would be able to guarantee a mature egg in X amount of maps (let's say 150 massive), effectively reducing maps to a point system that you may get lucky and get an egg early.

I've personally gotten two mature eggs: one from a massive and one from a grand. I've done probably 300 matriarchs and gotten none from that method. I don't do the hidden chests. I wear a lick suit on a tamer. Does it help? I don't really know -- but running around Catskills, it seems there are plenty of people on these new dragon mounts now.

Even at this rarity level, which we don't know the drop rate, I see far more people with this reward than are equipped with cameos from Roof. Over time, since the Devs have confirmed the mature eggs are staying, that supply is just going to go up and up.

In my opinion, the Devs are in a hard spot between transparency and the sort of allure of mystery. If they reveal the mathematical parameters that power this system, it's a sort of Wizard of Oz situation. By confirming that luck works in certain situations (nests, for example) and not with the matriachs, they already revealed useful information.

As everyone knows, wearing a Luck suit is a MASSIVE sacrifice of important properties necessary for fighting prowess (i.e. faster and better killing) as well as for survival.

If a maxed out Luck suit all it was to do is to go from 1% to 2% odds at a rare's drop, then, if I may ask, why bother ?

Surely, Luck bonus "must" be way better then that otherwise, I do not see why players would really want to bother at all going through the hassle to play with a Luck suit and have to give up important fighting and survival properties at all...

Especially, considered that the maxed out Luck only can be gotten 1 hour every 24 hours by using the Luck Statue and Luck Clock... for the other gameplay time in those 24 hours the Luck bonus, not being at Luck CAP, would be far less that even that 2%...

Should that be read as a message that Luck in Ultima Online is a "why bother" thing ???

popps · January 3

Pawain said:

Yup, when posters say they think the mature egg rate is too low, I noticed weeks ago that there were a lot of colorful Juvenile Umbrascale s running around.

My eyes say they are not so rare.

The luck issue should not be on nests. You can take a mage with whatever luck you want. Find the nest. Walk away. Gate your mob killer to the spot. Toss out 2 EVs. Open the nest. Invis. Let your killer do what they do.

BOT trains and 24/7 scripting is powerful...

That is where most of those Mature eggs come from, me thinks...

Players running scripts 24/7 and running trains of 5+ characters at once to "brute-force" the RNG can yield those Mature eggs which we are seeing around...

Too bad, though, that this "brute-forcing" of the RNG helps nothing the casual player as we are seeing from many players' Posts on this very Forum lamenting that, even after countless time spent in the effort to get one, they have gotten none...

Pawain · January 3

@popps if you played the event, you would see that there are not garg trains. They work in the dungeon but there are not eggs there.

Show me what you think is a garg train getting eggs on ur shard. The ones healing at Matriarch could get a drop without automation because you just have to show up. And they do not take anything from you. You get what your guy would get, with or without them.

Quit making excuses. If you have not got eggs by now, you have not played long enough.

This luck BS is all your doing. Look at what YOU asked for. All those stupid threads about luck. YOU were the only one wanting luck involved. This is what YOU DID. Now we all suffer the luck BS.

You wanted events made so you could use your cook to get drops.

You got what you have complained about for years!

Any toon gets drops! Now deal with the consequences of them making the events like you wanted.

We all have equal chance for a drop. Now we all have to play more to get stuff.

Playing smarter won't get more drops now. We have to play more. They dumbed UO down for posters like you.

Stop making excuses about the game you asked for!!!

vortex · January 3

popps said:

Pawain said:

Yup, when posters say they think the mature egg rate is too low, I noticed weeks ago that there were a lot of colorful Juvenile Umbrascale s running around.

My eyes say they are not so rare.

The luck issue should not be on nests. You can take a mage with whatever luck you want. Find the nest. Walk away. Gate your mob killer to the spot. Toss out 2 EVs. Open the nest. Invis. Let your killer do what they do.

BOT trains and 24/7 scripting is powerful...

That is where most of those Mature eggs come from, me thinks...

Players running scripts 24/7 and running trains of 5+ characters at once to "brute-force" the RNG can yield those Mature eggs which we are seeing around...

Too bad, though, that this "brute-forcing" of the RNG helps nothing the casual player as we are seeing from many players' Posts on this very Forum lamenting that, even after countless time spent in the effort to get one, they have gotten none...

I got 5 eggs doing chests 2800 luck and only started a month ago funny all the color 2783.

What luck are you running? How many hours a day do you play? what skills you have? Are you wearing your luck suit you were making and what other essential properties would you put on your suit? obviously your stealthing .

Pawain · January 3

@vortex ; If thats the purple. I'll trade a 2206 for it. It's not open. Pics are from test center.

https://community.stratics.com/threads/mature-dragon-eggs.434508/page-2#post-3183383

I kept getting blue.

Victim_Of_Siege · January 3

popps said:

Victim_Of_Siege said:

popps said:

Pawain said:

@ popps you want the rare prize 1 of 10?

No one would be doing it after a few days, in my case.

You want everything on a clicky.

They have to make the content engaging. Doing something 10 times and getting the rare drop is not engaging.

I may have expressed myself wrongly... I did not mean 1 out of 10 "total" tries... I meant, of the 10 Mature eggs that spawn (say out of 100 or 500, or 1,000 total tries ?), 9 should be going, to my opinion, to those players having worn Luck and using the Luck Statue and Luck Clock and 1 Mature egg going to those not using Luck or using very little...

Otherwise, I do not see why one would want to sacrifice other important properties while trying to maximize Luck.

Life, and games are about the pursuit, not the guaranteed reward. The rewards are just the icing on the donut. You aren’t entitled to anything in a game or in life, and this one is no different. You play, you enjoy the experience, and you get what you get.
I’ve played countless events without getting the drop I wanted, and I didn’t melt down over it. I traded for it or bought it later. Nothing wrong with that. I make plenty of gold playing the way I enjoy, and I have fun doing it.
The issue here isn’t the game, it’s the expectations you’re placing on it. You’re treating it like a business investment with expected returns, when it’s supposed to be a break from the grind, not an extension of it. You don’t need top‑tier gear or BIS everything to enjoy the content. I run around in stuff I crafted or looted and still play all the content just fine.
If you can’t enjoy the game without deluxe items dropping like candy, then maybe this isn’t the game for you. Play something that actually makes you happy instead of forcing this one to meet your unrealistic expectations.

This is software coding... isn't it ?

For example (just making numbers up for the sake of he discussion), without wearing any Luck odds would be 1 in 1,000... wearing Luck from 1 to 500 odds would become 1 in 900, with Luck from 501 to 1,000 odds become 1 in 800, with Luck from 1,001 to 2,000 odds become 1 in 600, with Luck from 2,001 to 3,000 odds become 1 in 500, with Luck from 3,001 to 4,000 odds become 1 in 400, with Luck from 4,001 to 5,000 odds become 1 in 200, with Luck from 5,001 to Luck CAP odds become 1 in 100.

That is, no Luck would give the player a 1 in 1,000 odds while being at 5,001-->Luck CAP would give the player a 1 in 100 odds (10 times higher).

Not a certainty at Luck CAP yet, 10 times higher as with no Luck which "should" inevitably result in players using Luck to have higher chances at rarer drops.

From players' experience in the game, this is not what is going on, it looks to me, way too many players with little to no Luck keep getting rare drops as compared to players using Luck, even maxed out Luck which, at least to me, shows that something might be wrong with the way that Luck works and, should that be the case, it makes sacrificing important properties in order to wear a Luck suit, not really worth the hassle, IMHO...

Are you playing the game to have fun or just to have something to post about. I, and many others have told you already that Luck is relatively broken or doesn't work like we think it does, None of my characters have a luck suit except my miner, for Salty Peters, because i can see real time that it make the nodes bigger. play the game, make a suit that lets you survive and quit crying over a .000001% chance that you might miss a drop. if you aren't relaxed while playing then you're doing it wrong.

Pawain · January 4

@Victim_Of_Siege ;

Only he can open.

I Play so I have something to post about.

and it is fun.

Venom · January 4

@popps

I run max luck on a tamer character that only uses a pet for damage. For that template, it's not a sacrifice. For other templates, it will be. Trade-offs are an essential part of the game in my view.

A 1% to 2% chance increase is quite literally doubling your chance, which is massive. Under your the sake of argument 5,001 luck is 1 in 100, that's half of the 2% chance. I don't know much luck actually helps, but the idea that it "must" help more significantly than doubling from 1 to 2% hence many players wearing it seems at odds with this thread questioning if it's even helpful. Many, like yourself, do ask why bother.

The idea that less than max luck (meaning a guaranteed boosted chance of a drop) is the only helpful thing in the 2% scenario is still a fundamental misunderstanding of the way luck has been previously said to work. Luck was previously claimed to be it's own RNG. This means you could wear 100 luck, the luck RNG from that could boost you to 2%, and you could get a mature egg drop thanks to that.

Grimbeard · January 4

Stop saying luck suits put you at a disadvantage !! You don't have to be max everything to do all content. My fishers all with high luck can do anything a top geared sampire can with 120 fishing

Pawain · January 4

My fishers all with high luck can do anything a top geared sampire can with 120 fishing.

Ya those 120 fishing Sampires are over rated.

Victim_Of_Siege · January 4

Pawain said:

My fishers all with high luck can do anything a top geared sampire can with 120 fishing.

Ya those 120 fishing Sampires are over rated.

I threw Myst on mine and it's off the chain.

Mordeed · January 4

vortex said:

popps said:

Pawain said:

Yup, when posters say they think the mature egg rate is too low, I noticed weeks ago that there were a lot of colorful Juvenile Umbrascale s running around.

My eyes say they are not so rare.

The luck issue should not be on nests. You can take a mage with whatever luck you want. Find the nest. Walk away. Gate your mob killer to the spot. Toss out 2 EVs. Open the nest. Invis. Let your killer do what they do.

BOT trains and 24/7 scripting is powerful...

That is where most of those Mature eggs come from, me thinks...

Players running scripts 24/7 and running trains of 5+ characters at once to "brute-force" the RNG can yield those Mature eggs which we are seeing around...

Too bad, though, that this "brute-forcing" of the RNG helps nothing the casual player as we are seeing from many players' Posts on this very Forum lamenting that, even after countless time spent in the effort to get one, they have gotten none...

popps said:

Pawain said:

Yup, when posters say they think the mature egg rate is too low, I noticed weeks ago that there were a lot of colorful Juvenile Umbrascale s running around.

My eyes say they are not so rare.

The luck issue should not be on nests. You can take a mage with whatever luck you want. Find the nest. Walk away. Gate your mob killer to the spot. Toss out 2 EVs. Open the nest. Invis. Let your killer do what they do.

BOT trains and 24/7 scripting is powerful...

That is where most of those Mature eggs come from, me thinks...

Players running scripts 24/7 and running trains of 5+ characters at once to "brute-force" the RNG can yield those Mature eggs which we are seeing around...

Too bad, though, that this "brute-forcing" of the RNG helps nothing the casual player as we are seeing from many players' Posts on this very Forum lamenting that, even after countless time spent in the effort to get one, they have gotten none...

I got 5 eggs doing chests 2800 luck and only started a month ago funny all the color 2783.
What luck are you running? How many hours a day do you play? what skills you have? Are you wearing your luck suit you were making and what other essential properties would you put on your suit? obviously your stealthing .

I've not found an egg yet and this type of statement confuses/frustrates me , 5 eggs in a month?

Nearly every day since the event started, 2650 luck, a mix of nests matriarch and mostly chests. Sometimes maybe just 2hrs but sometimes 6-8 hrs a day.
Now it's no big thing , I get it the big eggs are rare and in the process I've gotten a load of event items and over 1000 deco eggs for the vendor when it appears but it does make me thing 'am I missing something here?' or 'am I doing something wrong?'

Do you have to have stealing on your chest hunter for a mature egg to drop?

Mordeed · January 4

Congratulations btw on your eggs

vortex · January 4

Pawain said:

@ vortex If thats the purple. I'll trade a 2206 for it. It's not open. Pics are from test center.

https://community.stratics.com/threads/mature-dragon-eggs.434508/page-2#post-3183383

I kept getting blue.

Yup 2783 the purple I'll trade you I'm on great lakes though

vortex · January 4

Mordeed said:

Congratulations btw on your eggs

I have found every one after the invasion goes to another dungeon you can still find them and allot less risk.

keven2002 · January 5

Pawain said:

@ popps if you played the event, you would see that there are not garg trains. They work in the dungeon but there are not eggs there.

Show me what you think is a garg train getting eggs on ur shard. The ones healing at Matriarch could get a drop without automation because you just have to show up. And they do not take anything from you. You get what your guy would get, with or without them.

Few clarifications...

You DO see the bot trains in the dungeons. They don't get eggs from there but they get drops which convert to points for massive maps which in turn, get eggs. It's harder to see because nests are more of an isolated thing, but I will see some guys with their 2-3 sampires parked at the nests when I'm out doing nests.

Also you see the same bot trains at the matriarch doing the same thing and that is why you see all the juvenile dragons (blue/purple dragons have always out populated the other colors). It's very obvious to see these guys because they are the ones that are hopping into gates at Luna with their 2-3 toons. I keep doing nests even when the matriarch spawns and it's funny when I open a gate for my sampire (which is actually upstairs away from everything) and 3 guys pop out...and those same 3 guys pop into my gate that I send to gate my sampire out.

I hardly ever agree with popps but he has a point about the botters brute forcing the RNG numbers for the matriarch. As a single player playing legit, I can speak to the incredibly low amount of drops from the matriarch... when it comes to getting a drop from her it's just a numbers game so the more tickets (toons) you have there, the better chance you have at hitting the lotto (getting an egg). The more automated (ie scripted) things are, the easier it is to bring in the extra toons. I expect there to be a sharp increase in other color juveniles running around once they stop spawning the blue/purple from the matriarch and just spawn regular colors because botters still going to bot as long as it's profitable.

That said, this is a thread about luck; not botting so I'll bring it back on topic with the thought/idea that it would be nice to know if/how luck plays a part in getting a drop. Like for the easter event a couple years ago they had the calculations show at X luck your odds of getting a drop was Y. There were times I wouldn't be at max luck but I could see that luck impacted the roll. If my chances to get a mature egg is 1% without luck and 2% with max luck; I'm not going to worry about using luck... but if my chances are bumped to 25% with max luck that makes the trade off worth it for me.

Mordeed · January 5

I agree that some more information about the increased chances with X amount of luck would be really helpful. I'm mostly doing chests with 1600 luck, but with clock bonus about 2600. If having over 4k gave a significant bonus I would take some time out and work on my luck suit. If it negligible I wouldn't bother.

Do the luck potions you buy from the sovereign shop boost egg chances or are they just for event point items ?

Victim_Of_Siege · January 5

Mordeed said:

I agree that some more information about the increased chances with X amount of luck would be really helpful. I'm mostly doing chests with 1600 luck, but with clock bonus about 2600. If having over 4k gave a significant bonus I would take some time out and work on my luck suit. If it negligible I wouldn't bother.

Do the luck potions you buy from the sovereign shop boost egg chances or are they just for event point items ?

To the best of my understanding, the Potion of Glorious Fortune boosts luck overall, and The Google Box agrees with my memory.

Image: https://forum.uo.com/uploads/editor/lc/hu26y7kxozui.png

Pawain · January 5

Alexa, Play UO for me ...

Victim_Of_Siege · January 5

Pawain said:

Alexa, Play UO for me ...

I tried that, she sucked and lost the spawn.

Pawain · January 5

@popps and @keven2002 ; according to your logic, you should only gamble in empty Casinos.

Is that what you are saying?

The others do not affect YOUR drop. That is what Popps has been asking for, he wants to take his cook to an event and have the same chance as everyone else at getting a drop.

I happen to meet Stax on Atl when the Clydesdales came out. That dude works for the pets, initially gets the rare colors, sells quick for crazy high price, then he can tame some more or use his gold to buy low right now and sell higher over time. He did the same with Eggs. When he was doing nests and Matriarch, he made gates on 2nd floor Luna.

I got a lot of high stat Clydes from him that were not very rare colors. It takes a lot of dead big butt horses to get a nice color!

When we all have the same chance to get a rare drop, that means, we have to do that content a lot of times to get that rare drop.

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